It's Morning in America Again...
Focusing your life solely on making a buck shows a certain poverty of ambition. It asks too little of yourself. Because it's only when you hitch your wagon to something larger than yourself that you realize your true potential.
Barack Obama
He (Obama) said the other day that his (Iowa) primary victory "vindicated" his faith in America. My country has never had anything to prove to me, my friends. I have always had faith in it, and I have been humbled and honored to serve it.
John McCain
We, all of us really, grew up with our heads up our ass and some of us figured out how to pull our heads out.
Michael Moore
Two years ago today (My post "Election Eve Special") I gave a personal endorsement to the Democratic Party. I believe my exact quote was "vote Democrat straight down the line." It was the first time in my life that I did such a thing and the results were nothing short of spectacular! Upon hearing my proclamation, wave after wave of "Larry-Crats" hit the polling booths…and the Democratic Party rode that crest all the way to control of both the House and Senate in 2006.
Being that it is election eve again, it is time for me to formally declare which candidate I support for President of the United States. After much hand wringing about this most important choice, after listening to much internal and external debate, I can honestly say I have finally reached a decision…
Barack Obama.
In all seriousness, Barack has run the best campaign I have ever seen. I do remember Reagan's pitch - which the title of this post alludes to - but I was a lot younger then. I didn't dig Ron's thing but, in 1984, I knew that he connected with a whole slew of people who were fed-up. Ronny was positive and the fake cowboy took the population on a solid ride. It was intensely on point and people gravitated.
The same can be said about Obama. He has taken the high road without looking weak. He is a true uniter not a divider. He is smart and reasonable. I think, for the first time in my life, what I feel to be true is being eloquently expressed in the political forum. If that point of view is rejected by the electorate - than so be it.
But I am feeling confident that this is going to be a popular, as well as, an electoral landslide tomorrow. I am going to bed tonight completely sure that when the chips are down, We will choose Hope over Fear, Compassion over Cynicism, Knowledge over Ignorance. And when that statistical fact comes true, a broad-based mandate will exist that can create a new beginning in this country. Maybe the middle and working classes will get a fairer shake. Maybe Our foreign policy will become more stable and realistic.
At least, for you skeptics out there, that is at least a possibility.
I implore you to vote tomorrow even if you reside in a state that is "in the bag" (such as my home state of New York.) Go to the polls anyway. Make that national total as high as we can possibly make it. Let us show that this is no fluke.
I want to believe again.
Putting all of his eggs in one basket,
Larry B
posted by Larry B | 7:53 PM
5 Comments:
10 Reasons Why Obama Will Lose in November:
It's a shame, because I was looking forward to all the positive effects of an Obama victory, but Barack Obama will lose in November.
When McCain was trailing big and Obama was sailing along, I never felt Obama should be favored. He simply is too flawed of a candidate. Now that things have tightened in the polls and we are seeing what happens when people start to take a closer look at Obama, I believe the race is over. I have not gotten a presidential election outcome wrong in my lifetime, and do not expect to start now. The following 10 reasons make me quite pleased to have my money on McCain. (I can't believe he's still the underdog.)
1. Swing states are swinging McCain's way.
When I first thought about this, polls showed Obama leading McCain in Virginia, Colorado and Ohio. Today, they have McCain in the lead. This is a microcosm of all the reasons to follow, but many swing states that it looked like Obama would win don't look quite as good for him as people get more acquainted with the junior senator from Illinois.
Virginia has gone to the republicans for decades, and it was ridiculous to think they would lose it without a fight. While demographic changes due to the growth of the DC-supporting suburbs make Virginia a little less conservative than it used to be, this is still a reddish state. And many of those well-paid suburban dwellers won't feel like a massive tax-hike is good for them in a slow economy.
Colorado is very similar, but Obama has another negative here: the existence of a ballot-measure to ban the use of race in college admission, government hiring and contracting across the state. These have done well in other states, and should bring out some extra conservatives that aren't too high on McCain, but will nonetheless vote for him.
The winner of Ohio almost always wins the election. Ohio is as typically American as any state in the country. McCain trailed by a lot here, but has recently taken a small lead in the polls. I simply can't see any scenario where Ohio goes to Obama by the time this is done.
Other states that looked to be sureties for any Democrat are getting perilously close to tipping McCain's way. These include Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. We've already seen Pennsylvanian democrats weren't too high on Obama to begin with. If that state alone tips, Obama loses the presidency.
For the first time this election, Real Clear Politics' electoral map gives McCain a small edge.
2. Obama is on the wrong side of the top two issues in this election.
The number one issue in this campaign is the economy, and most people are realizing that raising taxes on almost every American taxpayer during a slow economy is not a good idea. Couple that with the prevailing opinion that the Democrats will control both houses of Congress, and most people will easily conclude that they are going to owe a big payment to the federal government if Obama is elected. McCain may have admitted that economics isn't his strong suit, but he has enough wisdom to know that Americans don't need a tax increase right now, and has all but promised he will not support one.
Number two is energy policy. Obama's refusal to support increased drilling, except to a small degree if he has to for a compromise, is definitely hurting him in the polls. 64% favor increased drilling, 55% favor more nuclear power, and the support for "Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less" will only continue to grow through November.
Senator McCain showed good judgment in switching his previously-incorrect opinion on drilling in light of higher gas prices. He would do well to reverse his position on drilling in ANWR for the same reason. McCain's campaign will "drill, drill, drill" into voters' heads the difference between the two on this issue.
3. Where's the change? Obama has exposed himself as a typical politician.
Barack Obama gained his popularity by running as an outsider, as the candidate of change (and hope, of course). He has obliterated this image from most people's minds by spending the last few months looking like what he is: a product of the corrupt Chicago political scene and a politician who will say nearly anything to get a few votes.
From reneging on his campaign promise to stick to public funding to flip flops on guns, abortion, the timetable for ending the Iraq War, his minister, etc, the only change we get with Obama is his ever-changing positions depending on who he's talking to.
Meanwhile, and often to my dismay, Senator McCain is known for his ability to do what he believes strongly in and stick with it. He is the bi-partisan in this race, and most voters see that as a welcome change.
4. Hey dude, where's my script?
Senator Obama has shown an inability to think on his feet. His performance at Saddleback convinced me that McCain will beat him in all three of the debates to come. Without a speech to read, Obama shows clear symptoms of foot-in-mouth disease, as when he said deciding when life begins is "above his paygrade."
Rush Limbaugh has been having lots of fun lately illustrating this lack of ability to speak clearly when unscripted, including breaking down a 40-minute presser into 8 minutes of "umms and uhhs."
He will be seen as an Ivy-league intellectual who is only capable of reiterating what someone else has told him rather than thinking on his own. McCain is the opposite. People who come off like Obama does, as just an 'intellectual,' seldom win the presidency of the United States.
5. The myth of the Obamacans is false
The myth that Obama ever enjoyed anything approaching meaningful support among Republicans is a product of his own excellent speech reading skills. Certainly some people who call themselves Republicans will end up voting for him, but clearly these people never knew why they were Republicans to begin with. Polling data shows that McCain can expect more than three times as many registered democrats will vote for him than the amount of registered Republicans who will vote for Obama.
While Obama's supposed bi-partisanship is a figment of his own overactive imagination, John McCain's bi-partisanship is a verifiable (and thoroughly annoying, to me) reality.
6. A house divided against itself cannot not stand. But a House and Senate and President divided against each other cannot fall.
As mentioned before, it is accepted by most that the democrats will keep control of both houses of Congress. I expect a lot of swing voters to come to the conclusion that divided government is the best option. The most prosperous times of the last century came under divided government. The most effective governing periods in recent history occurred under divided government, including the Reagan Eighties and Newt Gingrich's House Republicans vs Bill Clinton.
The last time the Dems controlled all three branches was during Clinton's first term, which worked so poorly that the Republicans were able to control the House for the first time in decades. The next most recent time that democrats controlled all three branches was during the Carter years. 'Nuff said.
7. Obama is losing ground with Christians, and has lots more ground to lose.
Oddly enough, the guy who went to the black-supremacist church somehow still leads among most Christian groups. But his support is eroding as people begin to pay attention to the race and learn more about the candidates.
During the past two months, Sen. Obama’s lead has eroded substantially among non-evangelical born again Christians (a decline of nine points); active Christians (a 20-point drop); Protestants (down 13 points); and Catholics (down 11 points).
I expect polls following the Saddleback Forum will show McCain leading among Christians. Obama's "answers" on abortion were awful, no matter which side of the issue you are on. But they should have illustrated to most Christians that Obama is in favor of a much greater number of abortions than they are comfortable with. More importantly, they showed him to have no spine and very little in the way of core beliefs.
Also, Obama is dominating the atheist vote, 55-17. This should surprise nobody, as he has run a "government is God and I am the chosen one" campaign. This is not usually a good sign for a candidate in a presidential election in America.
8. Clinton supporters will sit this one out.
As well they should, given the way the democrats affirmative-actioned Obama into the nomination. Hillary got more votes than Obama, did better in the states that matter to her party, dominated him down the stretch, and yet the party refused to do anything about it. Out of fear of finally being seen as the party that uses minorities as cheap pawns to earn points, the Dems are stuck with the lesser of the two candidates.
Many of the working-class Clinton supporters will find themselves more closely aligned to the centrist McCain than to Obama. Meanwhile, many of the women (like the PUMA's) are so pissed off that they will stay home or vote for Nader or Obama. When all is said and done, I expect Obama to receive a relatively small percentage (historically speaking) of registered Democrats.
9. Experience: Can we risk this right now?
This is the issue that seems to have pushed McCain into a dead-heat as I write this. It is no surprise that McCain's surge came closely after Obama's Magical Mystery Tour through Iraq and Europe, and then immediately after the confrontation between Russia and Georgia. When times appear to be risky and dangerous in nature, Americans generally don't like to roll the dice on an unknown who has very little in the way of accomplishments.
McCain has more meaningful life experience than Obama will have if he lives to be 200. We are in the middle of two wars, the big Russian bear is back on the scene, Iran wants nukes, the economy is slow. The weather is too nasty and the road to slippery to hand over the steering wheel to a 16-year old.
10. Obama is too liberal to win the presidency in America
Ever since Ronald Reagan made liberalism the dirty word it ought to always be, liberals don't win presidential elections. Bill Clinton won by running as a centrist, New Democrat, which to some extent he was. The last across-the-board liberal to win an election was Jimmy Carter, and that was only made possible by Watergate.
America is a center-right country, with the exception of some highly-packed urban areas and college towns. Many supporters complain about us pointing out his ranking as the most liberal Senator for 2007. I tend to agree with them, because I don't feel Obama spends enough time in the Senate (or votes often enough) to qualify for any reasonable rating system. However, major associations with communists, socialists, terrorists, the cult of a church that he went to for 20 years... These things make it pretty easy for Americans to see just how liberal he is.
Barring a major gaffe by McCain, (and I don't mean a Sarah Palin pick), I am positive that this election is over. What do you think? I know I've missed some reasons, but there are far too many.
anonymous, you must feel like a real shithead right now.
I mean you got EVERYTHING wrong. Either you were delusional or just plain stupid.
- robespierre
robespiere:
Just keep listening and understanding the words of Ralph Nader after Obama's win. Soon enough it will sink in...even into a thick skull of which you seem to have.
Anonymous, funny you don't sound like a Nader supporter. You sound like an old-fashioned frothing-at-the-mouth, hard-line Right-wing nutjob who, counting on (or hoping that) hatred and xenophobia to prevail, crafted a sad 10 point list that history (and a little common sense) would prove empty.
I'm sorry to have you confused with those people who find the brown-shirt policies and ideologies of the Republican party comforting.
Now that I know you are for Nader all is forgiven. You're alright.
- robespierre
I am responding late to this comment because I honestly thought that the first Anon was not real...or at least it is a reasonable person being sarcastic...or was a friend fucking with me because Anon's rather lengthy retort was one of the most ridiculous comments/posts I have ever read.
In fact, me and a couple of co-workers read that utterly absurd piece of astute political prose together, laughing so hard at the true silliness of the "reasons" listed that we were actually reprimanded for making too much noise in our cubes.
The hilarity was so overwhelming that I wet my draws.
But, in a much larger sense, the adults are at the table now so I am just going to turn the page and try to ignore all this backwards horse shit.
Post a Comment
<< Home